Even before Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2nd, the median estimate among the 48 who were surveyed by the University of Chicago’s business school was that Mr Trump’s levies would raise inflation in 2025 by 0.

The Congressional Budget Office released an analysis of the impact of President Trump’s tariffs. It projects current policies would reduce the deficit by $2.8 trillion over the next decade, but raise inflation and shrink the size of the economy.

The tariffs carry inflation risks at a moment when voters ... Of the roughly 29 million net tons of steel imported into the United States last year, a little under 2% came from China.

The analysis came before federal court decisions on tariffs last week and doesn’t account for potential changes to tariff policy.

Building costs rose in the first quarter of 2025 by more than any four-month period in 2024, one cost index found.

President Donald Trump’s trade war will wreak greater economic damage than previously expected, both in the United States and everywhere else, according to new forecasts by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke on Thursday, and both countries pledged to restart tariff and trade talks in the coming days. Trump hailed the call as "positive," with both leaders inviting the other to visit their respective countries.